March 28, 2024 – Winnipeg Free Press – Despite its reputation as one of Canada’s cleanest electric grids, Manitoba Hydro used more natural gas-fuelled electricity in the last 12 months than it has in a decade.
A perfect storm of drought conditions and high electricity import costs resulted in the province firing up its backup natural gas power earlier and significantly more often to keep up with demand.
From 2013 to 2023, the utility has run its natural gas generators for an average 54 gigawatt-hours of power; this year, the province has used 122 GWh, according to data provided by Manitoba Hydro.
The drought conditions took a toll on the province’s hydroelectric reserves this year, prompting the utility to import electricity as well as running its backup thermal generators.
It’s a foreshadowing of the uncertain future Manitoba Hydro faces as national efforts to shift away from fossil fuel energy sources in sectors like transportation and heating add strain to the province’s capacity-strapped grid. At the same time, the federal government is targeting a net-zero electricity grid by 2035, meaning any new power needs to be low in carbon emissions.
Hydro’s long-term projections show it will need to at least double its current power supply to keep up with the increased demands from electric vehicles and heating systems and to meet net-zero targets over the next 20 years. In the short term, the utility has admitted it doesn’t have enough power to add new, large consumers to the grid and will need new power sources by the end of the decade.
Despite its reputation as one of Canada’s cleanest electric grids, Manitoba Hydro used more natural gas-fuelled electricity in the last 12 months than it has in a decade.
In the midst of the growing power crunch, Manitoba Hydro, which boasts one of the cleanest grids in the country, is banking on fossil fuels long into the future — and it lacks a clear path toward building an arsenal of renewable sources.
The scope of the power problems
Even before the ongoing drought, Hydro had been sounding the alarm about a shortage of surplus power.
In a September briefing note to the province, obtained by The Narwhal/Free Press, Hydro revealed the surplus capacity used to mitigate fluctuating water levels and shore up revenue from power sales had become “very limited” as demand across all sectors had grown. A queue exists of more than 50 prospective “energy-intensive” customers requiring over 2,700 megawatts of capacity — more than double the existing surplus — and that pressure will only continue to mount.
“A single energy intensive connection may consume all remaining electrical capacity,” the note read.
“New economic development, new and existing customer expansion, decarbonization and vehicle electrification will continue increasing prospective electric interconnection … further constraining electricity supply.”
All told, Manitoba’s 16 hydroelectric dams produce 5,768 megawatts of electricity at any one time. The natural gas peaking plant in Brandon can add an extra 280 megawatts in a pinch, and the two small, independently owned wind farms in southern Manitoba contribute another 250 megawatts of capacity.
